Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 20.097650 21.185195 22.323045 23.606350 25.018390 26.530364 28.279320
2026-02-08 18.233182 19.700668 21.302542 23.194585 25.386454 27.868723 30.926209
2026-02-15 17.204358 18.880617 20.760655 23.049841 25.796415 29.032432 33.207156
2026-02-22 16.685861 18.563539 20.720757 23.421008 26.768305 30.864635 36.397927
2026-03-01 15.964434 17.940535 20.251773 23.205949 26.961703 31.698418 38.342404
2026-03-08 15.151923 17.154515 19.528086 22.610184 26.605236 31.763914 39.221996
2026-03-15 14.589036 16.636405 19.094633 22.336616 26.621007 32.287395 40.741291
2026-03-22 14.396404 16.556065 19.189083 22.726816 27.513472 34.035222 44.163518
2026-03-29 14.148289 16.390001 19.159656 22.942517 28.169993 35.488771 47.292384
2026-04-05 13.910669 16.223055 19.115304 23.126572 28.781654 36.910028 50.520697
2026-04-12 13.558352 15.893698 18.842444 22.981173 28.908816 37.610805 52.639464
2026-04-19 13.168887 15.501667 18.469961 22.677142 28.782271 37.905463 54.085624
2026-04-26 12.777276 15.104935 18.090216 22.364529 28.652425 38.226902 55.700972
2026-05-03 12.392772 14.706197 17.694286 22.011848 28.442860 38.406323 57.087147
2026-05-10 12.113777 14.436227 17.459823 21.873882 28.542386 39.082310 59.481888
2026-05-17 12.024415 14.413507 17.558045 22.214943 29.392203 41.066209 64.745783
2026-05-24 11.753716 14.138393 17.297856 22.017794 29.382059 41.576861 67.069941
2026-05-31 11.378478 13.712282 16.815117 21.471946 28.785575 41.014275 67.004857
2026-06-07 11.120651 13.439015 16.537623 21.220978 28.650576 41.260338 68.766084
2026-06-14 11.076469 13.454510 16.663981 21.578873 29.524482 43.400510 75.251159
2026-06-21 10.982939 13.398667 16.685948 21.776561 30.141636 45.121942 81.142933
2026-06-28 10.884707 13.332895 16.690331 21.945160 30.716773 46.816599 87.395707
2026-07-05 10.699843 13.141469 16.507084 21.811977 30.760720 47.462528 90.966956